Ten years after the UK stumbled into a rushed referendum that polarised the nation and unleashed turmoil, a advisory is issued from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the same could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating convulsions for which nobody is prepared.
That represents the warning from two respected journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a possibly fraught and transformative public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gather momentum rapidly," the commentator stated. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Released Volume Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have analysed the political, economic and cultural arguments for any governmental shift in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the topic with a roadshow of public talks that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns all parties, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose consequences have remained undefined because then you end up with an extraordinarily divided society where those defeated are not reconciled to losing and the victorious side are uncertain quite what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue this point is imminent, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the possibility, resulting in ambiguity if and when there might be a referendum.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Partisan language for and against unification has masked the shortage of substantive discussion, said the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the notion but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to make it possible is mostly absent. A lot has gone on in universities but hardly any elected officials or activists want to engage even with the essentials. For instance, which kind of country might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, none of the commentators endorses unification or the existing arrangement. They writes two articles that aim for impartiality in laying out the case for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, marshalling financial and societal data, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Arguments encompass national emblems, duties, medical care, pensions, public liabilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The goal is to inform and provoke discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there is still lacking a debate," commented O’Toole. "Dialogue implies an recognition of the idea that there might be valid points on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where citizens say they support unity but oppose greater financial contributions or introducing a new flag to reflect unionists' British culture.
"The Irish government does need to work out what the plan from Irish nationalism is aside from just stating: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," said O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride considers a referendum in his generation is likely and that it may take place abruptly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a incompetent secretary of state who states: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, legitimate arguments, he commented. "One side will prevail on this issue and somebody will ultimately lose but each side has has something to acquire from the alternative positions."
Call for Broader Discussion
Westminster should engage with the dialogue, urged O’Toole. "This involves the United Kingdom. It's a British issue equally as it is an Irish question."